{"id":142063,"date":"2026-07-25T03:02:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T01:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/bitcoin-prognose-planb-kehrtwende-zaehe-jahre-bis-2028\/"},"modified":"2026-07-25T03:02:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T01:02:27","slug":"bitcoin-prognose-planb-kehrtwende-zaehe-jahre-bis-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/bitcoin-prognose-planb-kehrtwende-zaehe-jahre-bis-2028\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Prognose: PlanB-Kehrtwende! Z\u00e4he Jahre bis 2028?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div id=\"attachment_90111\" style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\">\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-90111\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Foto: Magnific.com, zendaIA)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ausgerechnet der Erfinder: PlanB, der pseudonyme Analyst hinter dem legend\u00e4ren Stock-to-Flow-Modell, stellt sein eigenes Erfolgsrezept vorerst ins Regal. Den Bitcoin-Preis sch\u00e4tze derzeit ein ganz anderer Indikator am besten \u2013 und der sieht eine eher hinkende Entwicklung. Selbst Top-On-Chain-Analyst Willy Woo pflichtet bei. Prognose: Was bedeutet das f\u00fcr den Bitcoin-Kurs bis 2028?<\/p>\n<h3>Kehrtwende: PlanB setzt auf anderes Modell<\/h3>\n<p>Jahrelang gilt Stock-to-Flow (S2F) als das Kult-Modell der Krypto-Welt: Es leitet den Bitcoin-Preis aus dessen Knappheit ab und macht seinen Sch\u00f6pfer \u2013 einen ehemaligen institutionellen Investor \u2013 zu einem der meistzitierten Analysten der Branche. Umso bemerkenswerter seine j\u00fcngste Botschaft: \u201eDer Bitcoin-Preis l\u00e4sst sich derzeit am besten \u00fcber die Difficulty sch\u00e4tzen \u2013 nicht \u00fcber Stock-to-Flow, nicht \u00fcber das \u201aPower Law\u2018\u201c, schreibt der popul\u00e4re PlanB auf X. Hintergrund: Die Difficulty misst, vereinfacht gesagt, die Produktionskosten der Miner \u2013 also wie schwer es ist, neue Bitcoin zu sch\u00fcrfen. Diese Kosten bilden erfahrungsgem\u00e4\u00df einen Boden f\u00fcr den Kurs: F\u00e4llt der Preis darunter, schalten Miner ihre Maschinen ab.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"chartwrapper\" id=\"chartwrapper\" data-chartid=\"6a63425a459b3\"><\/div>\n<p>    <script id=\"tvChartLoader\" async src=\"https:\/\/unpkg.com\/lightweight-charts@4.2.0\/dist\/lightweight-charts.standalone.production.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>    <script id=\"declarations\">\n    var chartid = \"6a63425a459b3\";\n    function renderTV(kursData, chartData,companyName,currency, chartHeight, chartWidth, code, exchange, kursDate, hidetitle, hidelegend, chartid) {      \n    \tconsole.log(\"render chart with id\", document.querySelector(`[data-chartid=\"${chartid}\"]`));\n        let width = chartWidth?chartWidth:600;\n        let ratio = 2\n        let height = chartHeight?chartHeight:(width\/ratio);\n        document.querySelector(`[data-chartid=\"${chartid}\"]`).style.height = chartHeight +50\n        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Auch in den Folgejahren geht\u2019s demnach gem\u00e4chlich voran: F\u00fcr 2027 und 2028 steigt die Kurve nur langsam \u2013 grob in die Bereiche 70.000 bis 100.000 Dollar. Das ist entt\u00e4uschend, denn: Andere Modelle sehen f\u00fcr diesen Zyklus locker 500.000 Dollar und mehr. Aktuell notiert Bitcoin (BTC) bei rund 65.400 Dollar \u2013 nach dem Oktober-Hoch von 126.000 Dollar hat sich der Kurs fast halbiert.<\/p>\n<h3>Willy Woo stimmt zu \u2013 mit einem Haken<\/h3>\n<p>Zustimmung kommt von prominenter Stelle. Willy Woo, einer der renommiertesten On-Chain-Experten \u00fcberhaupt, kommentiert direkt unter PlanBs Prognose: \u201eDas ergibt viel Sinn, denn der Difficulty-Mechanismus wird prim\u00e4r vom Preis getrieben\u201c. Es sei zwar kein Prognosemodell, aber n\u00fctzlich, um Abweichungen zu erkennen, so der Neuseel\u00e4nder. Der Haken daran: Die Difficulty folgt der Rechenleistung im Netzwerk, und die folgt langfristig dem Preis. Der Indikator l\u00e4uft dem Markt also hinterher: Er vermittelt den Wert auf Basis der Produktionskosten \u2013 taugt aber nicht als Blick in die Zukunft.<\/p>\n<div data-elementor-type=\"section\" data-elementor-id=\"65922\" class=\"elementor elementor-65922\" data-elementor-post-type=\"elementor_library\">\n<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-85af2f4 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"85af2f4\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d8c938e\" data-id=\"d8c938e\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-53aa4a1 elementor-reverse-mobile elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"53aa4a1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings='{\"background_background\":\"gradient\"}'>\n<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-0776911\" data-id=\"0776911\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0b052cb elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"0b052cb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\"src=\"\" title=\"coinbase-logo\" alt=\"coinbase-logo\" loading=\"lazy\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-51f502b\" data-id=\"51f502b\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a4705df elementor-absolute elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a4705df\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings='{\"_position\":\"absolute\"}' data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p style=\"font-size: 12px; color: #999999; text-align: center;\">Anzeige<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-95d0a2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"95d0a2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Bitcoin &amp; Co. einfach handeln. <span style=\"color: #216CAD\">Beim Testsieger.<\/span><\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f9cdf69 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f9cdf69\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p class=\"sc-ERObt iaSbiG\">Deutschlands erster Kryptoverwahrer.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1006d84 elementor-icon-list--layout-traditional elementor-list-item-link-full_width elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-list\" data-id=\"1006d84\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-list.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<ul class=\"elementor-icon-list-items\">\n<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"far fa-circle\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">+230 Kryptow\u00e4hrungen<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"far fa-circle\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Attraktive Bitcoin-Sparpl\u00e4ne<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"far fa-circle\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text\">Durch die BaFin reguliert<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dba580b elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"dba580b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<div class=\"button-container\">\n        <a class=\"box-affiliate\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ftd.de\/go\/coinbase\/\" target=\"_blank\">Zu Coinbase*<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<h3>Prognose: Bitcoin auf Kurs gen 500.000 Dollar<\/h3>\n<p>So oder so: Ganz verabschiedet sich PlanB von seinem Lebenswerk nicht. Er unterscheidet zwischen Preis und Wert: F\u00fcr den gegenw\u00e4rtigen Preis h\u00e4lt er die Difficulty f\u00fcr das pr\u00e4zisere Werkzeug \u2013 f\u00fcr den langfristigen Wert bleibt Stock-to-Flow sein Ma\u00dfstab. Alle Modelle seien falsch, manche aber n\u00fctzlich, so sein Credo. Erst eine Woche vor der Kehrtwende bekr\u00e4ftigt er: \u201eAuf Basis der Stock-to-Flow-Bewertung kann BTC in diesem Zyklus (2026\u20132028!) immer noch auf 500.000 Dollar steigen \u2013 in einer Spanne von 250.000 Dollar bis 1 Million. Geduld.\u201c Kurzfristig z\u00e4h, langfristig also mindestens sechsstellig.<\/p>\n<h3>Trumps Simulation: Der Pr\u00e4sident verkauft seine eigenen Kursbomben<\/h3>\n<p>Ein einziger \u201eTruth Social\u201c-Post von Donald Trump bewegt \u00d6lpreise und Aktienkurse, kann ganze Portfolios pumpen oder crashen. Bislang geht das noch mit halbwegs rechten Dingen zu: Alle erfahren es gleichzeitig. Ab dem 1. August \u00e4ndert sich das. Trump Media verkauft dann den Fr\u00fchzugriff auf Beitr\u00e4ge des Pr\u00e4sidenten: Das Produkt hei\u00dft \u201eTruth API\u201c und liefert zahlenden Kunden die kursbewegenden Posts Millisekunden, bevor der Rest der Welt sie zu sehen bekommt. Kosten: bis zu 100.000 Dollar pro Monat. Wer zahlt, bekommt einen Direktzugang zu den Posts des US-Pr\u00e4sidenten. Ein Informationsvorsprung, unmittelbar von der Quelle gekauft \u2013 v\u00f6llig legal. Auf ein solches Gesch\u00e4ftsmodell muss die Wall Street erst mal kommen. Krypto-Kommentator Furkan Yildirim bringt es auf den Punkt: \u201eDie Financial Times berichtet, dass die \u201aMitgliedschaft\u2018 $100.000 pro Monat kosten soll. Wir leben wahrlich in einer Simulation\u201c, so der Analyst auf X.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 12px;\">Disclaimer:<br \/>\nDer Autor und\/oder verbundene Personen oder Unternehmen besitzt Kryptocoins, unter anderem auch Bitcoins. Dieser Beitrag stellt eine Meinungs\u00e4u\u00dferung und keine Anlageberatung dar.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\"src=\"\" alt=\"\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><\/p>\n<p>Der Beitrag <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ftd.de\/kryptowaehrungen\/bitcoin-prognose-planb-kehrtwende-zaehe-jahre-bis-2028\/\">Bitcoin Prognose: PlanB-Kehrtwende! Z\u00e4he Jahre bis 2028?<\/a> erschien zuerst auf <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ftd.de\/\">ftd.de<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Foto: Magnific.com, zendaIA) Ausgerechnet der Erfinder: PlanB, der pseudonyme Analyst hinter dem legend\u00e4ren Stock-to-Flow-Modell, stellt sein eigenes Erfolgsrezept vorerst ins Regal. Den Bitcoin-Preis sch\u00e4tze derzeit ein ganz anderer Indikator am besten \u2013 und der sieht eine eher hinkende Entwicklung. Selbst Top-On-Chain-Analyst Willy Woo pflichtet bei. Prognose: Was bedeutet das f\u00fcr den Bitcoin-Kurs bis 2028? Kehrtwende: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":142064,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-142063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ft","category-topstory"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142063"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142063\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/142064"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.abusizz.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}